Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
